Will the U.S. Default in the Next 10 Years? Jan van Eck's Warning

The short answer: Jan van Eck thinks so, but by his own broad definition. On The Pomp Podcast, the VanEck CEO said a "default" is the U.S. failing to honor any of its obligations, not just missing a Treasury bond payment. His example is Social Security: the program's trustees project that its retirement trust fund will run out in late 2032, after which only 78% of scheduled benefits could be paid unless Congress acts. That would be a benefit cut under current law, not a default on U.S. debt, and his 10-year call is his opinion, not a certainty.

Drawing on The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano (anthonypompliano.com), with guest Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck (episode released November 5, 2026).

Jan van Eck runs VanEck, which he said manages about $235 billion. When Pomp asked how investors can protect themselves from government spending, Jan laid out why he thinks the next crisis will come from Washington. Here is his argument, what the official numbers say and where the definitions matter.

Jan uses the word loosely. He said he asks people when the United States will not honor its obligations: "Some people call that a default." When he tells them it will happen in the next 10 years, he said, "literally 99% of people say no." He is not predicting that the Treasury will miss an interest or principal payment on its bonds. He is pointing to promises like Social Security that the government may not keep in full.

Under current law, a cut is projected. In their 2026 report, released June 9, 2026, the Social Security trustees project that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78% of benefits payable at that time. The combined retirement and disability funds are projected to last until 2034, with 83% of benefits payable then. Congress can change this by raising revenue, trimming benefits or moving money between funds. Jan's point is that every option has a cost.

On the show he put it this way: "2032, six years from now, they're going to cut payments to Social Security." When people tell him the money will come from somewhere, he asks, "Are they going to do that without causing massive inflation or other kinds of risks?"

That is what Jan expects. "We're going to inflate our way out of our debt," he said, adding that "there's no easy answer and it's not going to be pretty." He noted that voters have punished politicians for inflation. For the bond market side of this, see Will the 10-Year Treasury Yield Hit 6%? and What Is the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding?

Jan does not think so. Asked whether AI-driven deflation could let Washington keep spending, he said no, because the government is "writing checks to people" for health care and retirement. He argued new treatments such as GLP-1 drugs will keep health spending high, and that past technologies like the PC and the internet were also deflationary without fixing deficits. Related: Is the AI Spending Boom a Bubble?

He says investors should own "real assets, gold and Bitcoin in your portfolio," while admitting you don't know if they will pay off. His full case is in Why Does Jan van Eck Think Investors Should Own Gold and Bitcoin?

Jan van Eck thinks the U.S. will fail to honor some obligation within 10 years, using a broad definition that includes cutting Social Security benefits. He is not predicting a missed Treasury bond payment, and his view is an opinion.

The 2026 Trustees Report projects the OASI retirement trust fund will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. The combined OASI and DI funds are projected to last until 2034.

If Congress does not act, about 78% of scheduled retirement benefits would be payable after the OASI fund is depleted in 2032, according to the trustees.

No. A Treasury default means missing payments on U.S. government debt. Reduced Social Security benefits under current law would be a benefit cut, which Jan van Eck counts as not honoring an obligation.

Jan van Eck does not think so. He said the government is writing checks for health care and retirement, and that past deflationary technologies did not fix deficits.

Last updated: November 6, 2026

The Pomp Podcast is hosted by Anthony Pompliano and covers the future of business, finance and technology. The show features Pomp's conversations with founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy. Follow The Pomp Podcast on X.

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This article reflects the opinions of the guests and host as shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is guest opinion, not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.