Will the 10-Year Treasury Yield Hit 6%?

The short answer: Carson Group's Ryan Detrick says he "wouldn't be shocked" to see the 10-year Treasury yield around 6% a year from now, with stocks still higher. The 10-year was 4.99% on October 27, 2026, according to Treasury data. He points to the late 1990s, when the 10-year averaged about 6% in a strong economy. His caveat: markets can handle a slow rise, but a fast spike would bring "a lot of volatility."

Drawing on The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano (anthonypompliano.com), with Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group (episode released October 27, 2026).

The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark for mortgages and much of the economy, has climbed to about 5% this year. On The Pomp Podcast on October 27, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, said he wouldn't be shocked to see it near 6% a year from now, and that stocks could still be higher. Here's his reasoning, the data and what would change the picture. These are his opinions as shared on the show, not forecasts or advice.

About 5%. The 10-year yield was 4.99% on October 27, 2026, according to U.S. Treasury daily yield curve data, after closing at 5.00% on October 26. It started the year at 4.19% on January 2, hit a 2026 low of 3.97% on February 27 and a high of 5.31% on October 5. The 2-year yield was 4.70% on October 27.

Detrick thinks it could. "I wouldn't be shocked this time we come back in a year. This bull market's turning five. We're still higher. Things are still hanging in there and the 10-year yields probably around 6%," he said.

He pointed to history. In the last five years of the 1990s, "when things were pretty good," he said, the 10-year yield averaged about 6%. Federal Reserve data backs that up: the 10-year's annual average ranged from 5.26% to 6.58% from 1995 through 1999, according to FRED, for an overall average of about 6.05%. Detrick said nominal growth then was a bit lower than what the economy is seeing now.

Detrick gave three possible reasons: a stronger economy, inflation expectations and a flood of corporate borrowing. On the last point, he said the wave of new corporate debt deals gives investors attractive alternatives to Treasurys. "It's like, I can go make more money if I buy the debt of XYZ company versus a Treasury. So that's kind of pushing all these yields higher," he said. He called that "a theme again that we don't think is going to slow down."

Carson leans toward growth as the main driver. On Facts vs Feelings Episode 211, Carson noted that oil is above $100 a barrel, nominal GDP is expected to run near 7% and the 10-year yield is close to 5%.

Not if they rise slowly, in Detrick's view. "The market doesn't like huge volatility," he said. "If the 10-year yield went from here to 550 in a hurry, yeah, that's a lot of volatility." But if yields keep trickling higher, as he expects, he said that is more of a net tailwind for a growing economy. He said higher yields have been a tailwind for the last several years, though "maybe there's some point where the dam breaks."

That growth is picking up. "We've got something called the Carson leading economic indicator," Detrick said, noting it was built by his colleague Sonu Varghese. He said that four years ago, when many expected a recession, the indicator said no recession, and that it has recently turned higher. In his view, that means the economy likely strengthens into next year, which probably means higher yields and a stock market that still does well.

Higher yields mean falling bond prices, which is why Carson has shifted part of its bond allocation into gold and bitcoin. See How Much Bitcoin and Gold Should Be in a Portfolio? On the Fed, Detrick said he expects "one more hike and that's probably it." See Will the Fed Raise Rates in December?

A 6% 10-year yield would be about a point above where it is now, and it would hit mortgages and other borrowing costs. Detrick's argument is that if it gets there gradually, driven by strong growth, the economy and stocks can handle it, as they did in the late 1990s. The risk is a fast spike. Watch the speed of the move as much as the level.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.99% on October 27, 2026, according to U.S. Treasury data.

No one knows. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick says he wouldn't be shocked to see it around 6% a year from now, with stocks still higher.

The 10-year's annual average ranged from 5.26% to 6.58% between 1995 and 1999, averaging about 6.05%, according to FRED.

Ryan Detrick points to a strong economy, inflation expectations and heavy corporate borrowing that gives investors higher-yielding alternatives to Treasurys.

Not necessarily. Detrick says a gradual rise driven by growth can be a tailwind, but a fast spike would upset markets.

The Pomp Podcast is hosted by Anthony Pompliano and covers the future of business, finance and technology. The show features Pomp's conversations with founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy. Follow The Pomp Podcast on X.

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This article reflects the opinions of the guests and host as shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is guest opinion, not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.