The short answer: Probably, but it isn't locked in. As of October 27, 2026, CME FedWatch put the odds that rates will be at least a quarter point higher after the December 8–9 meeting at about 82%, and the Fed's own September projections imply one more hike this year. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.75%–4% when it announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET on October 28. The October jobs and inflation reports will decide December.
Drawing on The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano (anthonypompliano.com), with Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research (July 15, 2026), Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro (June 25 and July 30, 2026), and macro investor Jordi Visser (May 23, 2026). Market data as of October 27, 2026.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023. The question now is whether it does it again before the year is out. The Fed's two-day meeting, which began October 27, is widely expected to end in a hold on October 28, which puts the spotlight on December 8–9. This piece lays out what the Fed itself has said, what markets are pricing as of October 27, 2026, and how Pomp Podcast guests saw this coming, or didn't, earlier in the year.
Why did the Fed raise rates in September?
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 on September 16 to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4%. The statement was short and blunt: "Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability."
At his press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh said he "would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive," adding, "So we removed a dose of accommodation." The meeting minutes show the reasoning. Many officials saw a higher path for rates as "prudent on risk-management grounds," and a couple said they had raised their estimate of the neutral rate, the level that neither speeds up nor slows down the economy.
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
Markets think it's likely, but not certain. As of Tuesday morning, October 27, CME FedWatch showed an 89.5% chance the Fed holds this week. By the December meeting, it showed a 73.9% chance rates will be a quarter point higher, an 8.4% chance they will be a half point higher and a 17.7% chance of no change, according to FXBus. In CNBC's October Fed Survey, released October 27, 93% of respondents expected a pause this week and 76% expected a hike in December. Goldman Sachs expects a hold now and a second hike in December, according to Investing.com. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects a December increase and another in early 2027.
The Fed's own projections point the same way. In September, the median official projected the federal funds rate ending 2026 at 4.1%. That implies one more quarter-point move from today's 3.75%–4% range.
Fed officials are not committing to anything. Warsh has made a point of dropping forward guidance. "My business is to not give forward guidance," he said in September, describing the Fed as "committed to a discipline, not to a decision." Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on October 1 that he and his colleagues "will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time."
What data will decide the December decision?
Inflation. The consumer price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier in September, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month, driven by the U.S. war with Iran. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was 2.6%. Fed officials will be watching whether energy costs spill into everything else.
Jobs. The economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. That soft report is a big reason an October hike fell off the table.
Bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield ended October 26 at 5.00%, and the 2-year at 4.68%, according to the U.S. Treasury. A 2-year yield well above the top of the Fed's range is the bond market's way of saying it expects more hikes.
The October statement. The Fed's statement at 2 p.m. ET and Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on October 28 will be the next big signal. The September PCE inflation report follows on October 29, and economists expect core PCE of 3.1%, up from 3.0%, according to Investing.com. After that, the October jobs and CPI reports land before the December meeting.
Who on The Pomp Podcast called the rate hike?
In mid-July, Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth pushed back when Pomp suggested Warsh was looking for an excuse to cut. "I don't think cuts are in his mind right now," she said. Her base case was that good data could let the Fed hold off, but she flagged September as a live meeting for a hike. That's what happened.
Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, framed Warsh in June as "a dove in hawk's clothing": someone who wants easier policy over time but has to act tough on inflation first. In July, Dale said his firm's market-implied estimate of the neutral rate had risen sharply. He described the market as telling the Fed, "hey, we are running out of money at the margins," and that Treasuries need to pay more to compete with AI-related debt and fast-rising stocks. That's consistent with the minutes, where officials raised their own neutral-rate estimates.
Not everyone saw it coming. In May, macro investor Jordi Visser said plainly, "I don't think there's going to be rate hikes," and argued Warsh would "try his best not to raise rates." The Fed hiked four months later. Visser's broader point, that this cycle looks very different from 2022, is still up for debate. For more on how he thinks, see Who Is Jordi Visser?
What does a December rate hike mean for your money?
A higher federal funds rate flows quickly into credit card rates, home equity lines and other variable-rate loans. CNBC, citing LendingTree, puts the average new credit card offer near 24%. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury more than the Fed, and the 30-year fixed rate was about 7.3% on October 27, according to Mortgage News Daily. For savers, higher short-term rates keep yields on high-yield savings accounts and money market funds attractive.
For markets, the bigger question is whether the Fed is near its peak or just getting started. As of October 26, futures implied about 2.7 hikes over the next 12 months, according to Investing.com. That's a more aggressive path than Goldman's own forecast.
What should investors take from this?
As of October 27, the market expects a hold in October and another quarter-point hike on December 9. The Fed's own projections back that up. What could change it is the data. A soft October jobs report and cooler inflation could buy time. Another energy-driven jump in prices could push the Fed toward a bigger move. The Pomp Podcast guests who got this right, Roth and Dale, focused on two things: Warsh's willingness to act and the neutral rate moving higher. Watch both.
Key takeaways
The Fed raised rates 0.25 point to 3.75%–4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, in a 12–0 vote.
Markets expect a hold on October 28. As of October 27, CME FedWatch showed about 82% odds that rates will be at least a quarter point higher after the December 8–9 meeting.
The Fed's September projections put the year-end federal funds rate at 4.1%, which implies one more quarter-point hike.
September CPI was 3.7%, driven by energy. Payrolls rose just 29,000. The October jobs and CPI reports are the swing factors.
Stephanie Roth flagged a possible September hike in July. Darius Dale pointed to a rising neutral rate. Jordi Visser said in May he didn't expect hikes.
Best quotes from the episodes
"I don't think cuts are in his mind right now."
"I think he's legitimately deliberating whether the Fed's going to have to hike or not."
"But I wouldn't be surprised if he actually went ahead and did it in September if the data warranted it."
"We think Kevin [Warsh] is a dove in hawk's clothing."
"He has to wear the armor of a hawk in order to create the scope, the landing space for the Fed to get to that outcome."
"The market is telling the Fed, hey, we are running out of money at the margins."
"I don't think there's going to be rate hikes."
FAQ
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
Markets think it is likely. As of October 27, 2026, CME FedWatch showed a 73.9% chance rates will be a quarter point higher and an 8.4% chance they will be a half point higher after the December 8–9 meeting. The Fed's September projections also imply one more hike this year.
What is the federal funds rate right now?
The target range is 3.75% to 4%, set on September 16, 2026, when the Fed raised rates by a quarter point for the first time since 2023.
Will the Fed raise rates at the October 2026 meeting?
A hold is expected. As of October 27, CME FedWatch put the odds of a hold at 89.5%, after a soft September jobs report. The decision is due at 2 p.m. ET on October 28.
Why is the Fed raising rates?
The Fed says inflation remains elevated. CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier in September, driven largely by energy prices tied to the Iran war, and officials want to keep inflation expectations anchored.
When is the next Fed meeting after October?
The final FOMC meeting of 2026 is December 8–9, and it includes a new Summary of Economic Projections.
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Watch or listen to the full episodes
Hear Stephanie Roth on Kevin Warsh's thinking, Darius Dale on the neutral rate and the bond market, and Jordi Visser's case against hikes.
"Chief Economist: Inflation Has Peaked — Here's What Happens To Bitcoin Next" with Stephanie Roth, July 15, 2026. The Warsh discussion starts around the 23-minute mark.
"The Fed's Latest Move Just Changed Everything" with Darius Dale, July 30, 2026. The neutral-rate discussion starts around the 16-minute mark.
"Will The K-Shaped Economy Destroy America?" with Darius Dale, June 25, 2026. Darius opens with his read on Warsh in the first few minutes.
"Bitcoin Will Breakout By Summer If This Happens" with Jordi Visser, May 23, 2026. The rate-hike debate starts around the 10-minute mark.
Sources
About The Pomp Podcast
The Pomp Podcast is hosted by Anthony Pompliano and covers the future of business, finance and technology. The show features Pomp's conversations with founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy. Follow The Pomp Podcast on X.
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This article reflects the opinions of the guests and host as shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is guest opinion, not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.
