The short answer: Carson Group's Ryan Detrick doesn't think so, but he says the bears have a point. AI spending is "more than we've ever seen," in his words, and credit default swaps on some hyperscalers and AI cloud companies have widened sharply. His case against a bubble rests on earnings, which he says have grown over 30% this year. His advice: "Just don't go all in on tech."
Drawing on The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano (anthonypompliano.com), with Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group (episode released October 27, 2026).
Big Tech is spending at a pace that has some investors worried. Meta's free cash flow just turned negative, the company launched a stock sale of up to $97.5 billion and the cost of insuring some AI companies' debt has jumped. On The Pomp Podcast on October 27, Pomp asked Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, what the bears are getting right. Detrick laid out the risks, then explained why he still doesn't think the tech wave is over. These are his opinions as shared on the show, not forecasts or advice.
How much are companies spending on AI?
More than on almost anything in history, by Detrick's telling. "There's a lot of spending going on, like more than we've ever seen, more than the railroads in the 1860s, more than the infrastructure highways in the 1950s, the space race, even more than the internet bubble boom of the 1990s," he said.
Recent examples show the scale. Meta expects 2026 capital expenditures of $135 billion to $145 billion. In the third quarter, it spent $34.91 billion on capex while generating $32.79 billion from operations, leaving free cash flow at negative $2.12 billion. On October 26, it launched stock offerings that, with a planned at-the-market program, total up to $97.5 billion, Reuters reported. The full breakdown is in Why Is Meta's Free Cash Flow Negative?
On Facts vs Feelings Episode 211, Carson also highlighted SpaceX arranging a $40 billion chip lease with Apollo and a $63 billion infrastructure financing announced by Anthropic and Broadcom.
What are the bears getting right about AI?
The debt markets are showing stress. Detrick named it as the bears' best argument: credit default swaps, which measure the cost of insuring a company's debt against default, have widened on hyperscalers and AI cloud companies. Carson noted CoreWeave's CDS spread reached 1,150 basis points, up from 550 in June, and that spreads for SpaceX, Nvidia and Meta have also jumped. "I'm not saying the bears are right," he said, but the pace of new spending announcements has his attention.
Meta's report was a case in point. The stock fell 7% on October 22 as investors focused on negative free cash flow. For more on AI debt, see CoreWeave and Oracle Debt: Are AI Debt Fears Overdone?
Is the AI boom a bubble?
Detrick doesn't think so. "I just don't think this tech wave is over," he said, borrowing Dan Ives's line that it may be "one in the morning" at the party, with time left. His argument rests on earnings. He said multiples have come down this year even as the market rose, and that the reason is that "earnings growth has grown over 30% this year." In his view, if earnings stay strong and investors regain confidence, valuations could expand next year.
He also pointed out that high-yield credit spreads are not blowing out. "I say there's a monster under the bed. The credit markets would sense it. We're not seeing that," he said earlier in the episode. For Dan Ives's view, see Dan Ives AI Boom Call: 85% Is Still Ahead of Us
How should investors protect themselves if it is a bubble?
Diversify. "Just don't go all in on tech," Detrick said. He noted that when South Korea's market sold off sharply a week or two earlier, European stocks were higher. His advice: keep a diversified portfolio and stay overweight equities.
How is Carson investing in AI?
Broadly, not with narrow bets. Detrick said the Carson investment research team manages about $9.1 billion for advisors and their clients. He said Carson uses a broad tech fund (he mentioned XLK), is a little overweight tech and has had semiconductor, software and momentum exposure in more tactical models. He said Carson is not buying AI cloud companies, the so-called neoclouds, at that specific a level.
What is the big test for the AI trade this week?
Earnings. Detrick wrote on October 27 that "it's all about tech right now" and that strong earnings from the big hyperscalers "could go a long way to sparking the rally." Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on October 28, and Amazon reports after the close on October 29. Investors will be watching capex guidance, cloud growth and free cash flow.
What should investors take from this?
The spending is enormous and the debt markets are starting to price in risk, which is the bears' strongest point. Detrick takes it seriously, but his view is that strong earnings growth still justifies the trade, and that the tech wave isn't over. His practical advice is not to bet everything on it. If the hyperscalers' results disappoint this week, his bullish view on the overall market gets harder to defend, as he said himself.
Key takeaways
Ryan Detrick says AI spending is "more than we've ever seen," exceeding the railroads, highways, the space race and the 1990s internet boom.
The bears' best point, in his view: credit default swaps are widening. Carson says CoreWeave's CDS reached 1,150 basis points, up from 550 in June.
Meta's third-quarter free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion, and it launched stock offerings totaling up to $97.5 billion.
Detrick says earnings growth of over 30% this year is why he doesn't think "this tech wave is over."
His practical advice: "Just don't go all in on tech." Microsoft and Alphabet report October 28, Amazon October 29.
Best quotes from this episode
"There's a lot of spending going on, like more than we've ever seen, more than the railroads in the 1860s, more than the infrastructure highways in the 1950s, the space race, even more than the internet bubble boom of the 1990s."
"It's because earnings growth has grown over 30% this year is why."
"Just don't go all in on tech."
"I just don't think this tech wave is over."
FAQ
Is AI a bubble?
Carson Group's Ryan Detrick doesn't think the tech wave is over, citing earnings growth he puts at over 30% this year. He acknowledges risks, especially widening credit default swaps on AI companies.
What are credit default swaps?
Contracts that pay out if a borrower defaults. Their price, or spread, rises when investors see more risk. Carson says CoreWeave's CDS spread hit 1,150 basis points, up from 550 in June.
How much is Meta spending on AI?
Meta expects 2026 capital expenditures of $135 billion to $145 billion. Its third-quarter free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion.
How should you invest in AI without too much risk?
Ryan Detrick's advice is to diversify: "Just don't go all in on tech." He favors a diversified portfolio that stays overweight equities.
When do Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report earnings?
Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on October 28, 2026. Amazon reports after the close on October 29.
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Watch or listen to the full episode
Hear Pomp ask Ryan Detrick what the AI bears have right, and how Carson invests in tech.
"Everyone Is Bearish And That's Exactly Why You Should Buy" with Ryan Detrick, October 27, 2026. The AI discussion starts around the 7-minute mark.
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About The Pomp Podcast
The Pomp Podcast is hosted by Anthony Pompliano and covers the future of business, finance and technology. The show features Pomp's conversations with founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy. Follow The Pomp Podcast on X.
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This article reflects the opinions of the guests and host as shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is guest opinion, not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.
