The short answer: Kalshi is a U.S. prediction market, regulated by the CFTC, where people trade contracts on real-world events. It is led by co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour. Kalshi says it handles over 90% of U.S. prediction-market activity. It raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026.
A company profile from The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano. Last updated: October 24, 2026.
Key takeaways
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated U.S. prediction market where people trade contracts on real-world events.
It is led by co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour and says it handles over 90% of U.S. prediction-market activity.
It raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026.
What is Kalshi?
Kalshi lists "event contracts" on yes-or-no questions about real-world events. A contract pays out if the event happens, so its price reflects the market's estimate of the odds. Kalshi says institutions increasingly use event contracts to hedge real-world risk. Its main rival is Polymarket.
The CFTC's registry shows Kalshi was designated as a contract market on November 3, 2020. That makes it a federally regulated exchange, like a futures exchange.
Who runs Kalshi?
Tarek Mansour is Kalshi's co-founder and CEO, according to the company. "Event contracts could become a trillion-dollar market, and we're still in the early stages of that transition," he said in May 2026.
How much is Kalshi worth?
On May 7, 2026, Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation, led by Coatue, with Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest.
Kalshi said its annualized trading volume more than tripled in six months, from $52 billion to $178 billion, and that institutional volume rose 800%.
CNBC reported in June 2026 that Kalshi was valued at $2 billion in June 2025, and that Mansour said an IPO was being considered but not for 2026. CNBC has a commercial relationship with Kalshi and a minority investment in it.
On September 30, 2026, Bloomberg reported that Kalshi was finalizing new funding at a $40 billion valuation ahead of a planned IPO. Kalshi had not announced that round as of October 24, 2026.
CoinDesk reports that Donald Trump Jr. became an adviser to Kalshi in 2025 and also advises Polymarket.
What did The Pomp Podcast say about Kalshi?
Prediction markets came up on several recent episodes of The Pomp Podcast. Quotes are from the episodes, with timestamps.
On the October 15, 2026 episode, "How to Find the Next 10x Stock Before Everyone Else | Eric Jackson", Eric Jackson described Event Horizon, his project that uses AI to find where Kalshi and Polymarket odds are wrong. He said it is not always right. He gave an example: by his account, Polymarket put the odds that bitcoin would end August at $70,000 at about 3% on August 12, and bitcoin finished the month around $79,000. His takeaway:
"So the wisdom of crowds is not always correct"
On the October 20 episode, "Bitcoin Is Just Getting Started, Says Billion Dollar Investor | Moez Kassam", Pomp asked Moez Kassam of Anson Funds whether prediction markets are useful information. Pomp noted that thin liquidity can let one trader move a market. Kassam said people with real knowledge bet where they have an edge, that he finds the markets more accurate than polling, and that his firm uses them all the time. He also said there is "a lot of insider trading" in them.
On the October 22 episode with Dan Ives, "85% Of The AI Boom Is Still Ahead Of Us | Dan Ives", Ives said he had seen prediction markets put the odds of a SpaceX–Tesla merger as low as 18% to 20%, and much higher at other times. On the October 12 episode, Pomp asked Chris Camillo whether liquid prediction markets could let traders bet on a single data point, like AWS revenue, instead of a whole stock. Camillo said he finds the idea interesting but sees more opportunity in the complexity of real stocks.
Every Pomp Podcast episode that discussed Kalshi
Kalshi came up in 4 recent episodes of The Pomp Podcast. Each link opens the YouTube video at that moment.
Oct 15, 2026: How to Find the Next 10x Stock Before Everyone Else | Eric Jackson. Eric Jackson on using AI against prediction-market odds. Timestamps: 28:57 (Event Horizon), 29:33 (the August bitcoin example).
Oct 20, 2026: Bitcoin Is Just Getting Started, Says Billion Dollar Investor | Moez Kassam. Moez Kassam on prediction-market accuracy. Timestamps: 45:20 (prediction markets as information), 45:59 (Kassam's answer).
Oct 22, 2026: 85% Of The AI Boom Is Still Ahead Of Us | Dan Ives. Dan Ives on merger odds. Timestamps: 33:06 (SpaceX–Tesla merger odds).
Oct 12, 2026: How to Spot the Next Big Trade Before Wall Street | Chris Camillo. Chris Camillo on single-data-point markets. Timestamps: 15:17 (single data-point markets).
Separately, on the October 8, 2026 episode, Bill Barhydt of Abra predicted that by the end of next year, registered investment advisers will be able to offer clients prediction-market access (34:26).
Watch or listen to the episode
How to Find the Next 10x Stock Before Everyone Else | Eric Jackson, released October 15, 2026. Event Horizon and Kalshi come up at 28:57.
Prediction markets carry real risk of loss, and their legal status varies by state and country. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to trade.
FROM THE HOST
Put AI to work on your own financial questions.
Silvia is a personal AI CFO, built by investors, for investors. It answers questions about your cash flow, investments and goals using your own financial context, and organizes the details so you can review them. Access is read-only.
Disclosure: Anthony Pompliano is Chairman and CEO of Silvia, Inc. For educational purposes only; not financial advice.
Where can I follow Kalshi?
Kalshi posts company news on its newsroom.
Subscribe to The Pomp Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Frequently asked questions
What is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange where people trade event contracts on the outcomes of real-world events.
Who is the CEO of Kalshi?
Tarek Mansour, Kalshi's co-founder.
Is Kalshi legal?
Kalshi has been a CFTC-designated contract market since November 3, 2020. Some states have challenged prediction markets, so rules can vary by location.
How much is Kalshi worth?
Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026. Bloomberg reported in September 2026 that it was finalizing funding at $40 billion, which Kalshi had not announced as of October 24, 2026.
Is Kalshi going public?
CNBC reported in June 2026 that Kalshi's CEO said an IPO was being considered but not for 2026.
Sources
Last updated: October 24, 2026
Anthony Pompliano is an entrepreneur, investor, and author who serves as Chairman and CEO of Silvia, Inc (SVIA) and invests through Pomp Investments. He is the host of The Pomp Podcast, where he interviews founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy.
Follow Pomp on X.
Subscribe
Get notified for every new Pomp Podcast episode.
Subscribe for free to learn alongside Anthony Pompliano.
This profile is for informational purposes only and reflects reporting available as of October 24, 2026, plus opinions shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.
