Tesla SpaceX Merger: Dan Ives Puts the Odds at 80–90% and the Price at $500–$550

Updated October 24, 2026

The short answer: Will Tesla and SpaceX merge? As of October 24, 2026, no deal has been agreed: both companies' boards have formed special committees of independent directors to study a combination, and Elon Musk says a merger is not a certainty. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives, speaking with Anthony Pompliano on The Pomp Podcast on October 22, puts the odds of a merger by the end of 2027 at 80% to 90% and says a deal would need to value Tesla at $500 to $550 a share. Pompliano put that at roughly a 30% to 40% premium to Tesla's share price at the time, about $370 to $375. That $370 to $375 is where the stock was trading, not a price target.

From The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano, with guest Dan Ives, partner at Yorkville Ives and one of Wall Street's most-followed tech analysts. Episode released October 22, 2026.

The Tesla SpaceX merger has gone from internet speculation to board-level process. On October 20, Elon Musk said the boards of SpaceX and Tesla had each formed special committees of independent directors to look at a possible combination, as reported by NBC News and TechCrunch. Two days later, on The Pomp Podcast, host Anthony Pompliano asked Dan Ives, one of Wall Street's most-followed tech analysts, the questions every investor is asking: will it happen, why, at what price, and how are investors positioning? For the rest of our coverage, see our Tesla and SpaceX pages.

Here's where things stand as of October 24, 2026:

Here's what's confirmed. Both companies have special committees reviewing a potential combination. Musk has said he is a conflicted party and is not part of those discussions. He has also said the committees have not agreed on terms. Per NBC News, Musk said: "I think some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty, and I think that would be overstating it." Musk also said he thinks combining the companies has a lot of merit.

Ives is more confident than Musk's public caution. "It's a matter of when not if, in my view," he told Pomp. Later in the conversation he put the probability at 80% to 90%. He said it would take something anomalous for the deal not to happen. That's an analyst's opinion, not a disclosed outcome.

These numbers measure different things. Ives is giving his probability that the deal happens by the end of 2027. Polymarket prices whether a merger is officially announced by a given date, even if it never closes. Kalshi prices whether the companies merge before a given date. Here's the snapshot as of the evening of October 24, 2026:

Prediction-market prices move constantly and reflect traders' bets, not inside information. On the episode, Pompliano noted he had seen market odds as low as 18% to 20% at times.

No timeline has been given. Musk hasn't provided one, and the special committees haven't agreed on terms. A few markers to watch:

Ives laid out his strategic case in three parts:

Pompliano painted the full-stack picture: rockets launch Starlink satellites, Starlink beams down the internet, potentially from space data centers, AI runs on top, and the same intelligence powers cars, humanoid robots and specialized robotics. He said people throw around $10 trillion as the potential size, and asked, half-joking, why not $100 trillion.

Ives believes a deal would need to value Tesla at roughly $500 to $550 per share. "I couldn't see a deal happening sub-500 price," he said. Pompliano estimated that would be a 30% to 40% premium to where Tesla was trading. For context, Ives put Tesla's share price at the time at about $370 to $375. That's the price the stock was trading at, not a target. Tesla closed at $373.71 on October 20 (TIKR).

Pompliano noted that a higher price also helps with conflict-of-interest concerns. It's harder for Tesla shareholders to call it a sweetheart deal if they're paid a large premium.

On combined size, Ives said a merged company would likely be worth $4 trillion to $5 trillion. He suggested it could then make a run at becoming the biggest company in the world, which would make it potentially the largest merger in history. Reuters has described the potential merger at about $3.5 trillion, according to a StreetInsider report. Valuation estimates vary widely.

Nothing has been decided. Reuters reported that the companies have discussed structures including a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla or a merger under a new holding company, and are weighing forms of payment including an all-stock deal (Reuters). In an all-stock deal, Tesla shareholders would swap their shares for stock in the combined company, so what they receive would depend on the exchange ratio and where SpaceX stock trades. No ratio has been negotiated.

The premium is the big debate. Ives says $500 to $550 a share. JPMorgan expects a typical 30% to 35% premium, about $486 to $505 a share on Tesla's $373.71 October 20 close (TIKR). Analysts at RBC and JPMorgan told Reuters investors would want a premium of 20% to 35%, while some don't expect a premium at all (Reuters). None of these are offers.

On the Tesla side, Musk said a deal would need "a 50% vote of all shares, not just those who vote, but of all shareholders," which he called "quite a high hurdle." Shares that don't vote effectively count against the deal. Musk beneficially owns 19.8% of Tesla's shares, according to the company's latest proxy filing, as cited by CNBC.

On the SpaceX side, Musk holds voting control through 10-to-1 supervoting shares, and SpaceX said any combination would need approval from its special committee, its board and its controlling shareholder (Reuters). Regulators in the U.S. and abroad would also get a say, given Tesla's business in China and SpaceX's defense work.

xAI is already part of SpaceX. SpaceX acquired xAI, the maker of Grok, in a deal completed February 2, 2026 that valued SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion (Reuters). So a Tesla SpaceX merger would bring Tesla together with SpaceX's AI business as well.

The companies already overlap. SpaceX and Tesla are jointly developing the Terafab chip plant (Reuters), and Barclays has flagged Terafab as a possible key driver of a deal (CNBC).

Pompliano noted he had seen prediction-market odds as low as 18% to 20% at times, well below Ives' estimate. According to Ives, most investors he talks to are buying SpaceX right now, both for the merger and for its fundamentals.

Ives argued the bigger opportunity is Tesla stock. In his view, investors want to see an actual deal before they bid Tesla up toward a takeout price, and that will shift quickly once a deal looks real. Pompliano described a run-up scenario: if the stock drifts toward a deal price before a decision, holders capture some of that move even if the deal falls through.

That's a speculative setup. Deals can fail, terms can disappoint, and regulators get a say.

Ives acknowledged real obstacles:

Not yet. As of October 24, 2026, both companies have special committees of independent directors evaluating a combination, but no terms have been agreed and Musk says a merger is not a certainty.

Dan Ives puts the odds at 80% to 90% by the end of 2027. On October 24, Polymarket priced a 66% chance of an official announcement by December 31, 2027, and Kalshi priced a 47% chance of a merger before April 1, 2027.

No timeline has been set. Barclays expects an announcement could come before Tesla's December 3, 2026 annual meeting, while Reuters reported Musk's public comments could delay talks by several weeks.

No terms exist yet. Talks have included an all-stock structure, which would swap Tesla shares for stock in the combined company. Dan Ives says a deal would need to value Tesla at $500 to $550 a share, and Wall Street premium estimates range from little or none to 35%.

Musk said Tesla needs approval from a majority of all outstanding shares, not just shares voted. SpaceX said a deal needs approval from its special committee, its board and its controlling shareholder, Musk.

Anthony Pompliano is an entrepreneur, investor, and author who serves as Chairman and CEO of Silvia, Inc (SVIA) and invests through Pomp Investments. He is the host of The Pomp Podcast, where he interviews founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy. This article is based on his October 22, 2026 conversation with Dan Ives, with outside facts checked against the sources listed above. Follow Pomp on X (https://x.com/APompliano).

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This article reflects the opinions of the guest and host as shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is guest opinion, not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.