The short answer: Polymarket is a prediction market where people trade on the outcomes of real-world events, from elections to bitcoin prices. It was founded in 2020 in New York by CEO Shayne Coplan. After a 2022 settlement with U.S. regulators kept it out of the country, Polymarket bought a CFTC-licensed exchange and returned to the U.S. in late 2025.
A company profile from The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano. Last updated: October 24, 2026.
Key takeaways
Polymarket is a prediction market where people trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
It was founded in 2020 in New York by CEO Shayne Coplan.
It returned to the U.S. in late 2025 through a CFTC-licensed exchange, and CoinDesk reported a September 2026 round valuing it at $21 billion.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket lists contracts on yes-or-no questions about future events. Prices move as people trade, so a price reads as the market's rough estimate of the odds. Its main rival is Kalshi. CoinDesk notes that the two let users bet on everything from what a president says in a speech to who gets married on a reality show.
Who founded Polymarket?
Shayne Coplan founded Polymarket in New York in 2020 and is its CEO, according to The Block.
Is Polymarket legal in the U.S.?
It is now, through a separate U.S. platform. In 2022, a CFTC settlement barred Polymarket from serving U.S. users. Polymarket then acquired QCX, a CFTC-licensed exchange. In November 2025 the CFTC amended QCX's order so Polymarket could run an intermediated U.S. platform, The Block reported. The CFTC's registry lists the exchange as "QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US," designated on July 9, 2025.
How much is Polymarket worth?
In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket at about an $8 billion pre-money valuation.
On September 1, 2026, CoinDesk reported that 1789 Capital, Donald Trump Jr.'s venture firm, was leading a $1 billion round at a $21 billion valuation. 1789 is putting in about $300 million on top of roughly $200 million it had invested before.
CoinDesk also reports that Trump Jr. advises Polymarket and became an adviser to Kalshi in 2025.
What did The Pomp Podcast say about Polymarket?
Prediction markets came up on several recent episodes of The Pomp Podcast. Quotes are from the episodes, with timestamps.
On the October 15, 2026 episode, "How to Find the Next 10x Stock Before Everyone Else | Eric Jackson", Eric Jackson described Event Horizon, his project that uses AI to find where Kalshi and Polymarket odds are wrong. He said it is not always right. He gave an example: by his account, Polymarket put the odds that bitcoin would end August at $70,000 at about 3% on August 12, and bitcoin finished the month around $79,000. His takeaway:
"So the wisdom of crowds is not always correct"
On the October 20 episode, "Bitcoin Is Just Getting Started, Says Billion Dollar Investor | Moez Kassam", Pomp asked Moez Kassam of Anson Funds whether prediction markets are useful information. Pomp noted that thin liquidity can let one trader move a market. Kassam said people with real knowledge bet where they have an edge, that he finds the markets more accurate than polling, and that his firm uses them all the time. He also said there is "a lot of insider trading" in them.
On the October 22 episode with Dan Ives, "85% Of The AI Boom Is Still Ahead Of Us | Dan Ives", Ives said he had seen prediction markets put the odds of a SpaceX–Tesla merger as low as 18% to 20%, and much higher at other times. On the October 12 episode, Pomp asked Chris Camillo whether liquid prediction markets could let traders bet on a single data point, like AWS revenue, instead of a whole stock. Camillo said he finds the idea interesting but sees more opportunity in the complexity of real stocks.
Every Pomp Podcast episode that discussed Polymarket
Polymarket came up in 4 recent episodes of The Pomp Podcast. Each link opens the YouTube video at that moment.
Oct 15, 2026: How to Find the Next 10x Stock Before Everyone Else | Eric Jackson. Eric Jackson on using AI against prediction-market odds. Timestamps: 28:57 (Event Horizon), 29:33 (the August bitcoin example).
Oct 20, 2026: Bitcoin Is Just Getting Started, Says Billion Dollar Investor | Moez Kassam. Moez Kassam on prediction-market accuracy. Timestamps: 45:20 (prediction markets as information), 45:59 (Kassam's answer).
Oct 22, 2026: 85% Of The AI Boom Is Still Ahead Of Us | Dan Ives. Dan Ives on merger odds. Timestamps: 33:06 (SpaceX–Tesla merger odds).
Oct 12, 2026: How to Spot the Next Big Trade Before Wall Street | Chris Camillo. Chris Camillo on single-data-point markets. Timestamps: 15:17 (single data-point markets).
Watch or listen to the episode
How to Find the Next 10x Stock Before Everyone Else | Eric Jackson, released October 15, 2026. Event Horizon and Polymarket come up at 28:57.
Prediction markets carry real risk of loss, and their legal status varies by state and country. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to trade.
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Where can I follow Polymarket?
Polymarket lists its markets on its website.
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Frequently asked questions
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a prediction market where users trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events. Prices reflect the market's estimate of the odds.
Who owns Polymarket?
Polymarket was founded by CEO Shayne Coplan. Investors include Intercontinental Exchange, which agreed to invest up to $2 billion in 2025, and 1789 Capital, which reportedly led a $1 billion round in 2026.
Is Polymarket legal in the U.S.?
Polymarket runs a U.S. platform through QCX LLC, a CFTC-designated exchange doing business as Polymarket US. It returned to the U.S. after the CFTC amended QCX's order in November 2025.
How much is Polymarket worth?
CoinDesk reported in September 2026 that a new round values Polymarket at $21 billion.
What is the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi?
Both are prediction markets. Kalshi has been a CFTC-designated exchange since 2020. Polymarket started outside the U.S. and returned through its QCX acquisition. Kalshi says it handles over 90% of U.S. prediction-market activity.
Sources
Last updated: October 24, 2026
Anthony Pompliano is an entrepreneur, investor, and author who serves as Chairman and CEO of Silvia, Inc (SVIA) and invests through Pomp Investments. He is the host of The Pomp Podcast, where he interviews founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy.
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This profile is for informational purposes only and reflects reporting available as of October 24, 2026, plus opinions shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.
