The short answer: Pomp thinks so. He said on the October 29, 2026 episode that "Bitcoin is the least risky that it has been in years," citing the Lindy effect, hash rate, Wall Street adoption and clearer regulation. The trade-off, he said, is lower returns: maybe 30% a year compounded instead of 100%. That 30% figure is his guess, not a forecast anyone can guarantee.
Drawing on The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano (anthonypompliano.com), in which Polina Pompliano, founder of The Profile, interviewed Pomp (episode released October 29, 2026).
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 in October, and Polina Pompliano asked Pomp whether that worries him. It doesn't. "I've seen Bitcoin drop to 2K," he said, and a drop under $80,000 "cannot scare me because I have perspective." He then laid out why he thinks Bitcoin is a safer, slower asset than it used to be.
Why does Pomp say Bitcoin is less risky?
"Bitcoin is the least risky that it has been in years right now, in my opinion. Why? The Lindy effect," he said. The Lindy effect is the idea that the longer something has survived, the longer it is likely to keep surviving. He also listed hash rate, adoption, "the institutionalization and financialization of Bitcoin by Wall Street" and "the clear regulatory environment."
Are Bitcoin's returns shrinking?
Yes, by Pomp's account. "The returns are compressing," he said, walking through past cycles: roughly 20x in 2017, from about $3,000 to $69,000 in the next cycle, then from about $15,000 to $125,000. Each run was smaller in percentage terms than the one before. His takeaway: "lower return does not mean no return."
He said Bitcoin "used to go up 100% a year. Maybe it goes up 30% a year now on a compounded basis," compared with 10% to 15% for the stock market. These are his own estimates and assumptions, not guaranteed returns.
What does "AI is offense, Bitcoin is defense" mean?
It's how Pomp now thinks about his portfolio. "I look at AI is offense, Bitcoin is defense," he said. He used to treat Bitcoin as offense, buying heavily after it fell 85% in 2018, which he called "a generational wealth opportunity." Today he still adds Bitcoin "month after month, year after year," but said that of each new dollar, "maybe it's like 50-50 between Bitcoin and AI."
How should Bitcoin fit in a portfolio?
Pomp suggested "core Bitcoin exposure" plus AI stocks or private investments that could outperform it, but said investors first need to know their own risk profile. For one strategist's allocation, see How Much Bitcoin and Gold Should Be in a Portfolio?
What could go wrong?
Lower risk is not no risk. Bitcoin fell roughly 53% from its October 2025 record to its June 2026 low, according to Galaxy Research, and was trading near $77,300 on the evening of October 30, per CoinGecko. Past cycles don't guarantee future ones.
Key takeaways
Pomp says Bitcoin is "the least risky that it has been in years," citing the Lindy effect and Wall Street adoption.
He says "the returns are compressing" with each cycle.
His guess: maybe 30% a year compounded going forward, versus 10% to 15% for stocks.
He now calls AI offense and Bitcoin defense, and splits new money roughly 50-50.
Bitcoin still fell about 53% peak to trough in this cycle.
Best quotes from this episode
"I look at AI is offense, Bitcoin is defense."
"The returns are compressing."
"Bitcoin is the least risky that it has been in years right now, in my opinion. Why? The Lindy effect"
"Maybe it goes up 30% a year now on a compounded basis."
FAQ
Is Bitcoin less risky than it used to be?
Anthony Pompliano thinks so, citing the Lindy effect, hash rate, Wall Street adoption and clearer regulation. Bitcoin still fell about 53% from its record to its 2026 low.
What is the Lindy effect?
The idea that the longer something has lasted, the longer it is likely to keep lasting. Pomp applies it to Bitcoin.
What returns does Pomp expect from Bitcoin?
He guessed maybe 30% a year compounded, down from about 100% a year in the past. That is his estimate, not a forecast.
What does Pomp mean by "AI is offense, Bitcoin is defense"?
He now sees AI investments as his growth bets and Bitcoin as the steadier store of value, and splits new money roughly evenly.
FROM THE HOST
Check your own risk, not just bitcoin's.
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Disclosure: Anthony Pompliano is Chairman and CEO of Silvia, Inc (Nasdaq: SVIA). For educational purposes only; not financial advice.
Watch or listen to the full episode
Hear Pomp explain why he now sees Bitcoin as defense.
"My Biggest Bitcoin Regret Ever" with Anthony and Polina Pompliano, October 29, 2026. The discussion starts around the 8-minute mark.
Sources
About The Pomp Podcast
The Pomp Podcast is hosted by Anthony Pompliano and covers the future of business, finance and technology. The show features Pomp's conversations with founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy. Follow The Pomp Podcast on X.
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This article reflects the opinions of the guests and host as shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is guest opinion, not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.
