How Does the Stock Market Do After Midterm Elections?

The short answer: Historically, very well. The S&P 500 has been higher one year after each of the last 19 midterm elections, going back to 1950, with an average gain of about 15%, according to Carson Group's Ryan Detrick and Opening Bell Daily data. Midterm years tend to be volatile before the vote, and gains have usually come after. A split Congress, which Carson sees as a likely 2026 outcome, has historically been good for stocks.

Drawing on The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano (anthonypompliano.com), with Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group (episode released October 27, 2026).

Americans vote in the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, and investors are asking the same question they ask every two years: what happens to stocks next? On The Pomp Podcast on October 27, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, gave the simple version of the answer. "You just start the day of the midterm and go one year out," he said. "S&P 500 has never been lower the last 19 times." Here is what the data says, what the likely election outcome could mean and why the run-up to the vote is usually the hard part.

Historically, very well. Measured from each midterm election to one year later, the S&P 500 has been higher all 19 times since 1950. Detrick told Pomp the average gain is about 15%, which he said is nearly twice the typical one-year return at any time.

Opening Bell Daily ran the numbers: an average gain of 15.1% and a median of 14.5% in the 12 months after the last 19 midterm votes. The best year was a 33.2% gain after the 1954 vote. The worst was a 1.1% gain after 1986, a window that included the October 1987 crash. Five of the 19 gained less than 7%.

Detrick was careful to add that "not all of those are up a ton," and in his Nine Charts on Midterm Elections note he wrote that Carson doesn't think the streak "will end this time."

Uncertainty. In midterm years since 1950, the S&P 500's biggest peak-to-trough drop has averaged 17.5%, the deepest of any year in the four-year presidential cycle, according to Opening Bell Daily. Those lows often came in late summer or early fall, before Election Day. Once results are in, one big source of uncertainty is gone.

2026 broke that script. The S&P 500's deepest drop this year was a 9.1% correction that ended on March 30. Carson wrote that stocks are up just over 18% since the late March lows, and that historically the S&P 500 has gained nearly 32% from the midterm year's biggest pullback. The index set a record close of 7,818.93 on October 6 and was up 11.9% for the year as of October 16.

Less than most people think. "So again, not about red, not about blue, it's about green," Detrick said. His note warns investors to be skeptical of predictions that specific sectors will move based on who wins, and points to past examples that went the opposite way.

On the likely outcome, he asked listeners not to "shoot the messenger": Carson thinks Democrats will probably take back the House, while the Senate is closer, with Republicans having the easier map. In his note, he wrote that oddsmakers have Democrats taking the House "by a wide margin," with the Senate "a little bit closer at about a 65% chance."

Historically, yes. Carson's note says "the past 13 times we had a split Congress, the stock market never fell," with 2011 an exactly flat year and the rest positive. "Gridlock can be a good thing," Detrick said on the show. Carson's data shows a split Congress has been the best setup for investors, a Republican Congress a bit weaker and a Democratic Congress the weakest.

Carson also noted that a Republican president with a Democratic Congress has been one of the worst combinations for returns, while a Republican president with a split Congress has been above average. Even so, Carson wrote that "it's what's happening in the economy that really matters."

Usually up, but less reliably. From Election Day to December 31, the S&P 500 rose in 13 of the 19 midterm years, with an average gain of 2.6%, according to Opening Bell Daily. 2018 was the worst, down 9.0% by year-end, but the index was still up 11.7% a year after that vote. For the whole fourth quarter of midterm years, the average gain is 6.6%, with gains in 16 of 19. For more on the seasonal setup, see Is October Bad for Stocks?

The midterm pattern is one of the most consistent on Wall Street: stocks have been higher a year after every midterm since 1950. The pain usually comes before the vote, and 2026's pullback was milder than normal. A split Congress has historically been a fine outcome for markets. But 19 data points is a small sample, and Detrick's own view is that the economy and earnings matter more than who controls Congress.

Historically, yes. The S&P 500 has been higher one year after each of the last 19 midterm elections since 1950, with an average gain of 15.1%, according to Opening Bell Daily.

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Policy uncertainty before the vote. In midterm years since 1950, the S&P 500's biggest peak-to-trough drop has averaged 17.5%, the deepest of the four-year presidential cycle.

Historically, yes. Carson Group says the past 13 times there was a split Congress, the stock market never fell, with 2011 exactly flat.

Ryan Detrick says it's "not about red, not about blue, it's about green." Carson's view is that the economy matters more than which party controls Congress.

The Pomp Podcast is hosted by Anthony Pompliano and covers the future of business, finance and technology. The show features Pomp's conversations with founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy. Follow The Pomp Podcast on X.

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This article reflects the opinions of the guests and host as shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is guest opinion, not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.