How Does the Iran War Affect Oil and Bitcoin?

The short answer: The Iran war affects bitcoin mostly through oil. Attacks on shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure have kept Brent crude near $114 a barrel as of October 27, 2026. Higher oil raises inflation, which raises the odds of a Fed rate hike, which tends to pressure bitcoin. Bitcoin is about $80,500, up roughly 20% since the war began on February 28, but it has slipped below $80,000 this week as traders braced for the Fed.

Drawing on The Pomp Podcast, hosted by Anthony Pompliano (anthonypompliano.com), with Arthur Hayes (April 9, 2026) and Jeff Park (March 10, 2026), and Pomp's April 8, 2026 episode. Prices as of the afternoon of October 27, 2026.

The war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 is now in its ninth month. Oil is near six-month highs, the Fed is weighing a December rate hike and bitcoin is hovering around $80,000. This piece explains how the war moves oil, how oil moves inflation and rates, and how that reaches bitcoin. It also walks through the one oil chart Arthur Hayes told Pomp he watches. Prices are as of the afternoon of October 27, 2026.

It has pushed them up sharply. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at $115.81 a barrel on October 26 after briefly topping $117, CNBC reported. Prices fell for a second session on October 27, with Brent near $114 and WTI near $99.90 in the afternoon, down from a $101.76 settle the day before. Both are up about 10% this month, based on Yahoo Finance data. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told CNBC he expects Brent to stay near $110 through year-end. Before the war began, WTI's front-month contract closed near $67 on February 27, based on Yahoo Finance data.

The conflict has spread beyond Iran. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they struck pumping stations on Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pipeline and Riyadh's airport over the weekend, Reuters reported. Saudi Arabia did not immediately confirm the attacks. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters, according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, cited by Reuters.

There are also signs of diplomacy. Saudi Arabia's defense minister met Iran's president in Tehran on Monday, and Qatari mediators visited Tehran on Sunday in coordination with the US. Prices fell on those hopes. Michael Alfaro of Gallo Partners told CNBC the war has added about $20 a barrel of risk premium to oil.

In April, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, told Pomp he tracks the spread between the first and sixth WTI futures contracts. The first contract is oil for delivery next month. The sixth is oil for delivery about six months out.

His logic: the front month reflects today's shortage. The back end reflects what the market expects once things settle. If the back end stays contained, the market expects oil to keep moving through the Strait of Hormuz. "All that matters is will the oil go through the strait or not," he said. If back-end prices "start ratcheting higher," that's a sign the market expects the disruption to last. "If that's not happening, then we got a bigger problem."

The back end has ratcheted higher. On the afternoon of October 27, the December 2026 WTI contract traded near $99.90 and the May 2027 contract, the sixth, at about $90.50, based on Yahoo Finance data. That's a spread of about $9.40, down from about $11 a day earlier, but the front is still well above the back.

But the May 2027 contract itself has climbed from about $62 on February 27, the day before the war began, and about $72 on April 8, around when Hayes spoke. By his framework, the market now expects higher oil prices to last much longer than it did in the spring. The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said Monday he did not expect energy markets in 2027 to return to where they were before the war, Reuters reported.

Hayes also offered a simpler test. Most people, he said, mainly care whether daily life stays affordable, "as long as gas price is not $6 a gallon." AAA's national average for regular gas was $4.27 on October 27.

Mostly through oil, inflation and interest rates. Higher oil raises inflation. Higher inflation raises the odds the Fed hikes rates. Higher rates tend to drain liquidity from risky assets like crypto and stocks.

That chain is in play now. Traders expect the Fed to hold rates on October 28, but CME's FedWatch tool put the odds of a December hike at 83% on October 27, Reuters reported. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Monday as traders cut risk ahead of the meeting and dipped below it again on Tuesday, CoinDesk reported. Traders are watching whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hints at a December hike, and Jeff Mei of BTSE told CoinDesk that oil, the Iran conflict and inflation could push the Fed toward an aggressive tone.

The early part of the war went differently. In March, Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap Financial, argued there's a "wartime Bitcoin" that could lead to higher highs. He noted that when the G7 floated an emergency release of strategic oil reserves, "Bitcoin went up 2,000 points." In April, Pomp asked why bitcoin was "still green" while stocks, gold and bonds fell.

The scorecard so far is mixed. Bitcoin closed near $67,000 on February 27 and was about $80,500 on October 27, a gain of roughly 20%. But Park's view that February 28 marked the bottom at $63,000 didn't hold: bitcoin fell to about $58,500 at the end of June. For more on that, see Who Is Jordi Visser?

For bitcoin, the Iran war matters mainly through oil and the Fed. Two signals are worth watching. First, the back end of the oil curve: by Hayes's test, rising back-month prices mean the market expects a longer disruption. That test is flashing caution. Second, the Fed: the decision on October 28 and PCE inflation data on October 29 will show how much higher oil is feeding into rates. A real peace deal that brings back-month oil prices down would ease both. Prediction markets such as Polymarket are another way to track the odds of escalation or a deal.

Attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz and on Saudi energy infrastructure have pushed prices up. Brent crude settled at $115.81 a barrel on October 26, 2026, near six-month highs, and traded near $114 on October 27.

Mainly through oil. Higher oil raises inflation, which raises the odds of Fed rate hikes, which tends to pressure bitcoin and other risky assets.

Hayes tracks the spread between the first and sixth WTI crude futures contracts. Rising back-month prices signal the market expects the supply disruption to last.

The war began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, according to Reuters.

Yes. Bitcoin closed near $67,000 on February 27, 2026 and was about $80,500 on October 27, 2026, though it fell to about $58,500 in late June.

The Pomp Podcast is hosted by Anthony Pompliano and covers the future of business, finance and technology. The show features Pomp's conversations with founders, investors and economists about bitcoin, markets, AI and the economy. Follow The Pomp Podcast on X.

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This article reflects the opinions of the guests and host as shared on The Pomp Podcast. It is guest opinion, not investment advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.